Japan's property market just posted a second straight record year — but record volumes, a weak yen and rising rates do not tell you where the actual opportunity is. We put the three most common claims about Japan real estate to the test, and the findings are not what the headlines suggest.

Geopolitical risk is one of the macro variables most often treated as broadly negative for investment opportunities. The instinct on both sides of the headline cycle is to either retreat from the asset class entirely or to chase perceived winners.

Macro factors tell you where to look. Micro factors tell you if the deal is worth doing.

The broad picture is improving. Capital is moving again, financing conditions are less punitive than during the peak tightening phase, and pricing in several markets appears to have found a floor.