Time Stamp Topic Reference
0:00 Introduction
0:25 Overview of Sydney Housing Market
1:53 Reasons for Increases in House Prices
3:41 Further Growth in the Future
4:58 Housing Trends and Changes
5:56 Key Considerations and Risks
8:50 Outro

Transcript

0:04
Victoria
You’re listening to the RealVantage podcast. The show that provides investors a better viewpoint into the real estate market with your host, Victoria Au.

0:17
Victoria
So today I’m joined by Keith, who is the CEO of RealVantage.

0:22
Keith
Hi Victoria.

0:25
Victoria
Hi Keith. So, well, RealVantage has just launched a Sydney residential project. I believe our investors would be interested to hear our take on this. Perhaps we could start with an overview of the Sydney housing market?

0:38
Keith
Sure. Sydney housing market has been doing extremely well. It is one of the strongest and consistent performers compared to other cities in Australia for many years. Currently, Sydney’s housing value has hit a record high and prices are up by approximately 8.5% in the first quarter of 2021. This increase is the largest quarterly increase in almost 3 decades. That’s pretty amazing. The city's median house prices rose from 1.2 million in December last year to a record 1.31 million in March this year.

But growth is not just restricted to the key cities. In Wollongong, south of Sydney, it saw a massive 34% spike. Prices are now at an average of 1.2 million and in Byron Bay, north coast of New South Wales, the average increase was 31%. So it is amazing to see how strong the Sydney market is and it’s not just only in New South Wales and Sydney, other capital cities also recorded large upswings during the quarter. Melbourne saw a 4.8% rise and Darwin saw a 9.1% increase.    

1:53
Victoria
Those are some big positive numbers! Which is really interesting, considering we’re still living in COVID-19 times. What do you think could be some reasons behind house prices rising in Sydney and Australia during the pandemic?

2:08
Keith
Yup, that’s a very good question, Victoria. Well, firstly, the strong economic outlook. Australia’s economy expanded 1.8% in Q1 this year and it’s expected to do very well for the rest of the year. Employment rates have also risen and they are now past pre-pandemic levels. And consumer spending has gone up. And, investors’ investment sentiments have slowly gone up as well. More importantly, the low interest rate environment. New housing loans, the rates are now at an all-time low of 2.7% as of March 2021.

In addition to that, the number of physical measures. The government has introduced several tax cuts, they rolled out a 7.8 billion personal tax cut, personal income tax cut and a 20.7 billion tax relief for businesses to aid the COVID recovery. And this is also, there’s another important factor that has contributed to the growth which is for first time home buyers, they get a leg up with a $25,000 home grant from the government. So all these factors are also supported by the government’s ability to effectively and efficiently contain the COVID-19 pandemic. And this has helped to generate very strong sentiments throughout the housing market.

3:41
Victoria
Hmm, so low interest rates, tax cuts, couple of initiatives by the Australian government and the ability to contain the COVID-19. So that’s, yeah, that really does help explain the strong performance of the Sydney residential real estate asset class thus far. So the next question on our investors’ mind would then be “is there still room for further growth?”.

4:09
Keith
Well, this is, there are a lot more smarter people out there that can predict better than I. Well, ANZ, for one, predicted that, it’s predicting that Sydney housing prices will rise to a strong 19% for 2021 and a further increase of 6% in 2022. National Australian Bank predicts Sydney houses will go up by 17.5% this year and Commerce Bank is predicting a rise of 16%. So all of them are demonstrating double digit growth for the rest of 2021 and also up to 2022. But, more importantly, the population growth has also projected to boom post-pandemic. This is fuelled by an influx of immigrants as Australia opens up its borders.

4:58
Victoria
Right, so, maybe we can zoom out a little to understand in terms of, you know, housing trends. How has that changed specific to our current pandemic times? How do you feel COVID-19 has changed the housing market in Sydney and elsewhere?

5:15
Keith
Well, the changes are not just in Sydney but I think, the rest of the world. Firstly, there is a change in preference in housing locations, obviously fuelled by work-from-home. Moving away from downtown areas to outlying areas with bigger spaces. That’s one trend we have seen. Second, there is also a willingness to spend more on housing. While as people spend more time at home, they treasure more home space now than ever before. So I think these changes have also fuelled short-term demand squeeze. However, this will likely ease over time as supply starts to catch up.

5:56
Victoria
Right. So, in short, the Sydney residential market has been performing well and expected to maintain its robustness. What are some key considerations and risks investors should be, you know, aware of?

6:11
Keith
I think that’s a very important consideration for investors. Firstly, they should be clear about where they are investing and the changing demand patterns. So every market is affected differently by broader economic conditions and the changes to the way we live and work. “Working from home and escape from the city” phenomenon that we saw in 2022 will likely continue. Lifestyle will take a precedence and will attract more of a premium over locations, that’s one.

While the key element in the reversal of fortunes is likely to be the increase in interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently announced that they are, they have always been fixated on generating inflation in the economy. But this could take some time. Probably by 2023, rate hikes could gain beyond the table for the RBA. Well, even if they remain low by historical standards, any rise would likely represent a deterioration in current conditions. Well and this will affect affordability and once that starts to happen and starts to persist, it may finally start to kick in for potential buyers.

But the other point to note is, the housing boom in the last 25 years has been fuelled not only by low rates, low-interest rates, but also by chronic undersupply that has developed between 2005 to 2015 when population growth surges ahead of new dwelling constructions.

So, I think 2 factors are now working to mitigate this. Number 1, supply has been steadily increasing to catch up with demand over the last 5 years. Second, immigration has stalled in the wake of border closures and this may take some time to recover. Well, I think the important point, the bottom line, is that all these might not happen imminently but conditions are likely to line up at some point for some sort of more sustained slowing in the Australian housing market.

Well, the good news that we have heard is that RBA has acknowledged an excessive heating up of the property market in the near term as a concern but not a pressing one at the moment. So investors, nonetheless, should take note of this.

8:40
Victoria
Thanks for all the explanations and insights, Keith.

8:45
Keith
Thank you, Victoria.

8:50
Victoria
Thanks for joining us this month on the RealVantage podcast. Make sure to visit our website, realvantage.co where you can sign up to join our investment community and start building your global real estate portfolio today. If you found value in this show, we would appreciate a rating on iTunes and do share this with your friends and fellow investors. Be sure to tune in next month for our next episode.


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